The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, with both global terrorist attacks and resulting deaths decreasing, reflecting a significant decline in attacks and deaths worldwide.
Global terrorist attacks dropped 22% while deaths decreased by 28%, suggesting progress in resolving some territorial and economic conflicts.
According to the Institute for Economics & Peace, which publishes the GTI, the decline is partly due to a shift in how violence is carried out and where it occurs. While the number of attacks has decreased, terrorism has become more concentrated in specific regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa’s Sahel region, which now accounts for a large share of global terrorism deaths.
Dr. Steve Elliott-Gower, associate professor of international relations at GCSU, said the drop is also tied to how violence is categorized.
“There are several factors behind the drop in the GTI. One of the most significant [has] been the evolution of terrorist groups to insurgency groups, meaning a shift from attacks on civilians to attacks on military, police, and government targets,” Elliott-Gower said. “Therefore, [there is] a decline in what GTI counts as terrorist attacks.”
Data from the GTI supports this shift, noting that many extremist groups are increasingly engaging in organized conflict rather than isolated attacks, blurring the line between terrorism and insurgency.
According to Our World in Data, a project of Global Change Data Lab, which is a nonprofit based in the UK, most terrorist incidents globally target civilians, military personnel and government institutions, but classification differences and reporting limitations can affect how these events are counted.
Elliott-Gower emphasized that while global numbers are improving, the reality is more complex.
“There’s long been a concentration of terrorism in the so-called ‘arc of instability’ from West Africa through the Middle East to Central Asia,” he said. “However, terrorism is even more concentrated in the Sahel region today. A country like Mali can take no comfort in the decline in the global numbers.”
Recent reporting also highlights that while global deaths have declined, some regions are experiencing worsening violence. According to a 2026 report cited by The Guardian, terrorism deaths have surged in countries like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, even as global totals fall.
Elliott-Gower warned that the decline in terrorism does not necessarily mean a safer world.
“The decline in global terrorism may be a trend, but it does not represent a decline in political violence,” he said. “It’s sort of an accounting issue.”
He added that state actions and retaliation could drive future violence.
“Recent acts or threats of what might be regarded as ‘state terrorism’ are likely to engender a whole round of revenge violence,” Elliott-Gower said. “Violence begets violence.”
Josephine Stephens, a sophomore philosophy and interdisciplinary studies major, said she remains skeptical.
“The reality is that terrorism within the West has gone up,” Stephens said. “I will not feel optimistic about the future of America until the American government stops inciting terror against foreign countries.”
An article by Vision for Humanity notes the GTI’s indication that deaths related to terrorism actually “surged by 280 per cent in 2025” in the West.
Still, Stephens said she finds hope in how younger generations engage with political issues.
“I think that youth radicalization comes from individuals being able to critically think about the political position of both themselves and their government in the global market,” she said. “The fact that this critical thinking is happening brings me hope.”
Elliott-Gower noted that the decline in global terrorism may have limited direct impact on American students.
“The decline in the GTI does not significantly affect the safety of American students because most terrorism occurs in conflict regions outside the United States,” he said. “The primary concern in recent years has been domestic extremism.”
As students prepare to enter adulthood, the report presents a nuanced outlook: global terrorism may be declining on paper, but evolving forms of conflict and regional instability continue to shape the future.
