The end of awards season is upon us, as the biggest night in Hollywood is right around the corner; the 96th Academy Awards will air at 7 p.m. on Sunday, March 10.
I know that the Oscars do not mean anything, necessarily, but I enjoy keeping up with them — to a degree. And I love trying to predict the winners. Now, the show includes 24 categories. That is a lot, to say the least, so here is who I think will take home each of the “major awards”: Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director and Best Picture.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”), Robert de Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”), Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”), Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
Since critics got the chance to see “Oppenheimer,” this has felt like Robert Downey Jr.’s Oscar to lose, and it still does. Do not get me wrong, I loved Ryan Gosling and Mark Ruffalo’s performances in “Barbie” and “Poor Things,” but I think Downey Jr.’s is — just a little bit — better, and I think this will be the first domino to fall in the night’s “Oppenheimer” wave.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”), America Ferrera (“Barbie”), Jodie Foster (“Nyad”), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Color Purple”)
I will admit, I have not seen “The Holdovers” yet, but Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the odds-on favorite here. According to GoldDerby, Emily Blunt is running in second, and the buzz around her Oscar campaign has been muted — at best. I am going to err on the side of caution and take Randolph.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: “Anatomy of a Fall,” “The Holdovers,” “Maestro,” “May December,” “Past Lives”
“Anatomy of a Fall” is another one of those movies that I never got the chance to see, but it has been winning at precursor awards shows left and right. I would love to see “May December” or “Past Lives,” two of my favorite movies of last year, win here, but I do not think either is going to happen.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: “American Fiction,” “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things,” “The Zone of Interest”
Christopher Nolan adapted “American Prometheus,” an 800-page biography, into a three-hour movie that keeps you on the edge of your seat for its entire runtime; he will win Best Adapted Screenplay.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Justine Triet), “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Martin Scorsese), “Oppenheimer” (Christopher Nolan), “Poor Things” (Yorgos Lanthimos), “The Zone of Interest” (Jonathan Glazer)
Even with all of the big names here, it feels like everybody is on the same page: “Oppenheimer” is Christopher Nolan’s crowning achievement. If he wins here, it will be a big deal, as “Killers of the Flower Moon” might be one of the last major Scorsese movies — if not, God forbid, the last Scorsese movie — we ever get.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”), Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”), Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”), Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
At this point, this feels like a two-horse race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. Murphy is the favorite, and as I said, I think “Oppenheimer” is going to have a huge night, so I will take him. However, if Giamatti wins here, look out, as it might be a sign that there could — again, could — be an upset in Best Picture.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening (“Nyad”), Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Sandra Hüller, Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
I do not think “Killers of the Flower Moon” will have a big night, as it has not received a lot of awards buzz, and Martin Scorsese’s previous movie, “The Irishman,” did not do all that well at the Oscars. However, I think Lily Gladstone will win Best Actress. This feels like another two-horse race, here, between Gladstone and Emma Stone. Stone’s work in “Poor Things” is my favorite performance of last year in my favorite movie of last year, but Gladstone taking this home just feels right to me. If she does, it will be well-deserved, as she is incredible in — and by far the best part of — “Killers of the Flower Moon,” in my opinion. Part of me wishes “Poor Things,” not “La La Land,” was the movie Stone won her first Oscar for, though.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: “American Fiction,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Past Lives,” “Poor Things,” “The Zone of Interest”
Again, it feels like it is going to be Nolan’s night, and “Oppenheimer” winning Best Picture would be the perfect way to cap that off. Do I want “Poor Things” to take this home? Yes. Will I be upset if it does not? No. I think “Oppenheimer” is — “Memento” notwithstanding — Nolan’s best movie.
