A recent poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, or AJC, places former President Donald J. Trump eight percentage points ahead of Joe Biden, the current president of the United States. Although the presidential election is still 10 months away, the notable distance between the likely presidential nominees raises concerns for the Democratic Party and sparks a newfound hope for the Republican Party.
However, some are questioning the legitimacy of the poll; the fact that there were just over 1,000 participants proves it difficult to formulate a definitive prediction.
“I believe that the 1,000 individuals surveyed do not generalize to the entire state of Georgia, and more individuals should have been polled,” said Anna Hunger, a junior political science major. “The polls are likely somewhat accurate but still hold room for potential biases. The AJC polls use a random sample to gather their data, which is good, but they draw phone numbers based on voting registration status.”
Nevertheless, even if the poll had a higher number of respondents or contains some bias, it is still a significant time until the election, which is on Tuesday, Nov. 5. This will leave ample time for what the AJC reports as nearly 20% of undecided Georgian voters to finalize a selection and, eventually, vote. Historically, independent and undecided voters can change and reverse predicted polling, as they undeniably influence the election cycle.
“At this stage, we need to take any polls with a grain of salt,” said Dr. Benjamin Clark, a senior political science lecturer at GC. “Even if they are accurate, they tell us what the election would look like if it were to happen tomorrow, but the election obviously won’t happen tomorrow, and a good many voters will be emotionally and mentally in a different place in November than they are now.”
Moreover, even with party-aligned voters, the changing reputations of the candidates could have a massive effect on election results. The inconsistent popularity of politicians is a potential explanation for Georgia in the 2020 presidential election, when the state “went blue,” or Democratic-leaning, and defied the expectation of being a “red,” or Republican-leaning, state.
Despite different contexts, the current race for president has a possibility to follow a similar path, wherein negative attributions for the Biden administration could lead to a rise in support for Trump. Some negative feedback of the current administration is related to Biden’s handling of economics, varying rates of inflation, government spending and a changing tax code.
“While we have historically been a red state, the increasing populations in urban cities, like Atlanta, Macon and Savannah, make up a large portion of Georgia voters who typically tend to be blue-leaning,” Hunger said. “I believe many Georgians, like the rest of some Americans, admired the way Trump ran the country as a ‘business.’ Increased inflation and cost of living was down during Trump’s presidency, and I think a lot of Georgians long for that again.”
On the contrary, many voters are keen to witness Trump’s troubling state of judicial affairs to match or even supersede Biden’s economic notoriety. With 91 current felony charges and four separate court cases pending, the possibility for Trump to lose votes in this election is difficult to ignore, particularly among existing skeptical Republican voters.
“Most committed Republicans already believe the charges are baseless and are unlikely to be swayed — even by a guilty verdict,” Clark said. “A sizable minority of Republican voters are bothered by these charges, but those were probably Trump-skeptical to begin with.”
Trump’s indictments related to the Jan. 6 insurrection have been the primary cause for two states, Maine and Colorado, to attempt to remove him from their presidential ballots altogether. The constitutionality of both Trump’s ability to run in the election, as well as the decisions by Maine and Colorado, remain in question. Both decisions stem from interpretations of the 14th Amendment, which bars anyone “engaged in insurrection” from being president.
Nonetheless, the presidential race is certainly in full throttle. With both candidates experiencing a range of voter feedback, it is, beyond question, difficult to predict.
